Indicators of Instability

Anon E. MooseEconomy, Environment

Deutsche Bank Projecting A 40% Decline In NY Housing Prices – ZH

Yellen’s Contradictory Message On Upcoming Rate Hikes – ZH

If the Fed waits much longer to raise rates – as some institutions like the IMF want it to do – it might be forced to move aggressively once it starts. However, if it moves sooner, that could allow it to proceed gradually and observe how the economy and markets respond.” – J Yellen

‘Black Swan’ Taleb Warns “Calm Before The Storm” – ZH

“The five characteristics they view as major factors in instability are:
– centralized decision making
– lack of economic diversity
– high levels of debt and leverage
– absence of political variability
– lack of track record in surviving shocks

Austin Texas is currently experiencing very interesting housing market conditions: the market is overvalued, while also being admired for its potential by none other than Forbes, citing an 8.9% population growth between 2010-2013. What they don’t say is what the impact of the “impressive” population increase will be on our environment. 

Population Growth of Texas Cities and Its Impact – Office of the State of Texas Demographer (Joint Hearing on Land and Resource Management, Oct. 2014)

By studying climate indicators like our cave systems and tree rings, there is reasonable certainty that Texans are going to be impacted in the future by water shortages; potentially a megadrought, if past indicators are a predictor for the 21st century. Another Black Swan?

Water Impacts in Twenty-First Century Texas – Banner et al.

“What can Texas business leaders do to respond and prepare?… [Solutions] include diversifying a business’s water supply portfolio. One can develop a comprehensive analysis of their company’s water footprint, and at the same time assess the water footprint along the supply chain. As part of this analysis, learn how to be more water lean by sub-metering, and assess water risk and resiliency. Much has been done in projecting and responding to changes in energy sources and costs, assess likely rising water costs. Be aware of hidden subsidies and externalities in water pricing. Study and learn about energy conservation as an analog to industrial and commercial water conservation. Support public policy that encourages shared responsibility for water conservation, and consider water availability in relocation and expansion planning. The same industries that might suffer in a water-stressed region may instead thrive by innovating in areas such as technology-driven drip irrigation and drip fertilization with advanced sensor systems. Beginning now to adapt to the changes to come is key to achieving water resiliency for Texas.”

Austin Homes Hit an All Time High – kxan

“Now that Mayor Adler and Austin’s new city council members are past their first 100 days in office,” Cooper said, “the Austin Board of Realtors expects quick and decisive action on policies that will put a stop to Austin’s growing housing affordability issues.”

Forbes Thinks Austin is a “Best Buy City” – CultureMap

“Austin’s housing market is slightly overpriced at 8 percent, according to Local Market Monitor’s “Income Price,” which tries to capture how the average home would be priced in a market without speculation or disruptions like the housing crash and how it relates to the average income over several years. Still, the city’s booming population — which grew 8.9 percent from 2010 to 2013 — and annual job growth of 3.6 percent push it into the top spot.”